Despite OPEC+’s plan to temporarily suspend production increases, China’s oil demand has slowed down and the stronger US dollar has stabilized world oil prices.
According to Oilprice, on the morning of November 4 (Vietnam time), Brent oil price increased by 0.12 USD, equivalent to 0.2%, to 64.89 USD/barrel. WTI increased by 0.07 USD, equivalent to 0.1%, to 61.05 USD/barrel.
World oil prices stabilized due to OPEC+ decision. Illustrative photo
World oil prices were almost flat in the first trading session of the week (November 3), experts said, as the market balanced between OPEC+’s continued production increase and plans to temporarily suspend quota adjustments in the first quarter of 2026, along with concerns about oversupply and weak production data in Asia.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners in the OPEC+ alliance have agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. At the same time, the group also plans to suspend quota increases in the first quarter of next year.
According to energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, OPEC+’s increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day this quarter will not put much pressure on oil prices, as it is balanced by the plan to temporarily suspend raising production quotas in the first quarter of next year.
On November 3, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 a barrel, from $57.50 previously. The bank said that OPEC+’s decision to suspend quota increases, along with developments related to Russian oil, are factors supporting prices.
Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the global oil market could have a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026. Meanwhile, OPEC forecasts that energy supply and demand will balance next year.
At an energy conference in Abu Dhabi (UAE), European oil and gas business leaders advised investors not to be too pessimistic about the oil price outlook, in the context of the market facing many fluctuations.
Canada’s RBC bank said Russia remains an unpredictable unknown in terms of supply, especially after US sanctions and attacks on energy infrastructure.
Asia – the world’s largest oil consuming region – continued to face difficulties in the manufacturing sector in October, according to a business survey on November 3.
China’s oil demand has slowed since 2020 as the country shifts toward green energy, said TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne, but he remains optimistic about the long-term outlook thanks to growing demand in India.
A stronger US dollar also put pressure on oil prices, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Federal Reserve officials are divided on the direction of monetary policy amid a lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said there is no rush to cut interest rates because inflation remains well above the 2% target.
Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she would monitor more data to assess the possibility of adjusting interest rates at the meeting in December. Lower interest rates can boost economic growth and oil demand by reducing consumer spending.
US manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month as new orders fell and delivery times lengthened, as tariffs on imports remained in place. President Donald Trump said the US could deploy troops or launch airstrikes in Nigeria, an OPEC member and Africa’s biggest oil producer, to stop what he called a “Christian massacre”.
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