Possibility of a Fed rate cut next week may already be fully priced into gold…
Global gold prices declined in Wednesday’s trading session (Dec 3), moving closer to the USD 4,200/oz level, even though expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut strengthened following weaker-than-forecast U.S. employment data. The giant gold-backed ETF SPDR Gold Trust continued to record net outflows.
At the close, spot gold in New York fell by USD 3.3/oz, or 0.08%, to USD 4,204.1/oz, according to data from Kitco. On the COMEX, February 2026 gold futures rose 0.3%, settling at USD 4,232.5/oz.
Silver prices hit an all-time record in this session, surpassing USD 59/oz before ending at USD 58.55/oz, up 0.06% from the previous session. Silver has more than doubled in price this year.
On Tuesday, spot gold dropped 0.6% at the close. During Wednesday’s session, gold briefly climbed above USD 4,240/oz but failed to hold its gains despite support from the disappointing U.S. employment report.
According to data from payroll-services provider ADP, the U.S. private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November, compared with expectations for a gain of 10,000.
Following the report’s release, futures markets continued to price in nearly a 90% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at its policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. At the same time, the U.S. dollar weakened sharply, with the Dollar Index dropping 0.5% to 98.9.
These developments are typically supportive of gold, an asset that pays no yield and is priced in USD.
“Disappointing employment data, along with silver hitting a new record, helped support gold,” said senior strategist Bob Haberkorn of RJO Futures in an interview with Reuters.
However, gold still slipped and is clinging to the key USD 4,200/oz level, indicating that the possibility of a Fed rate cut next week may already be fully priced in. The metal may be waiting for a new catalyst to break higher—such as a more dovish signal from the Fed for 2026.
The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, sold a net 2.1 tonnes of gold on Wednesday, bringing its total holdings down to 1,046.6 tonnes. Over the past two sessions combined, the fund has offloaded 3.8 tonnes.
The market is now awaiting the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index— the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—scheduled for release by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday.
In an interview with Kitco News, Nitesh Shah, a commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said current gold prices reflect fair value and that the downside potential is limited. He added that investors waiting for a deep pullback will likely be disappointed, as gold is strongly supported by signs of U.S. economic weakness—an issue that will force the Fed to cut rates next week and further into 2026, weakening the dollar and pushing both real and nominal Treasury yields lower.
According to Shah, gold has built a strong support base around USD 4,200/oz following a recent period of consolidation.
Haberkorn added that silver may soon reach USD 60/oz due to concerns over tightening supply on global exchanges. This year, silver prices have been boosted by a structural deficit in global supply relative to demand, combined with the U.S. placing silver on its list of critical minerals.
At 6:10am Vietnam time on Thursday (Dec 4), spot gold in the Asian market rose USD 3.8/oz from the U.S. close, up 0.09%, trading at USD 4,207.9/oz. Based on Vietcombank’s USD selling rate, this price equals approximately VND 133.9 million per tael, down VND 100,000 from yesterday morning.
At the same time, Vietcombank’s website quoted the USD at VND 26,140 (buying) and VND 26,410 (selling), unchanged from the previous morning.
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