This Monday morning, gold broke out and continued setting a new high at $3,799/ounce, approaching the $3,800/ounce level.
The reason for this unexpected surge comes from the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown, as the budget dispute between Democrats and Republicans remains unresolved, leading to a weakening of the U.S. dollar this morning. This, in turn, has boosted market expectations — with over 90% anticipating the Fed will cut interest rates in October and 65% forecasting another cut in December this year.
In addition, geopolitical risks in the Gaza Strip are also escalating, as Israel’s Prime Minister aims to end the war completely through force by eliminating Hamas — a move that could further fuel armed conflict and cause greater damage.
Therefore, this morning’s spike is entirely unexpected and heavily influenced by macroeconomic news. I believes that this week gold could climb higher, possibly above the $3,85x/ounce range if conditions show no signs of cooling down.
This week, the market also awaits the Non-Farm Payrolls data. If NFP results remain unoptimistic, gold will likely receive strong short-term support to rise further.
Trí Hùng
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