Bitcoin plunged below 90,000 USD on November 18, marking its lowest level in seven months and wiping out all year-to-date gains. This raises the question of whether the sell-off is merely a temporary shakeout or the beginning of a deeper downturn.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency had previously reached an all-time high above 126,000 USD on October 6 before sliding just days later. Bitcoin has now fallen more than 28% from its October peak, showing signs of an increasingly deepening bear market. Its market capitalization has evaporated by more than 600 billion USD, shrinking to around 1.8 trillion USD.
Industry experts point to a two-phase decline: an initial sell-off driven by macroeconomic factors, followed by forced liquidations. However, long-term investors argue that the fundamentals of the digital-asset narrative remain intact.
Alessio Quaglini, CEO of Hex Trust, said the turning point came on October 10, when renewed U.S.–China trade tensions triggered an immediate sell-off in risk assets. In the days that followed, “a chain reaction of liquidations wiped out billions of dollars in leveraged positions.”
Beyond Bitcoin, the broader crypto market has also come under pressure. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has fallen more than 35% from its August peak of 4,954 USD.
Peter Chung, Head of Research at Presto Research, said that “thin liquidity since the 10/10 crash and fears that the four-year cycle is ending are the main drivers. Even a small, routine trade can cause sharp price swings.”
Anxiety is spreading across exchanges and social media. Many investors have returned to studying historical charts in search of optimal entry points. Finding no clear pattern, they revert to the four-year halving cycle — the event that cuts Bitcoin’s mining rewards in half.
Historically, each halving has led to a strong bull cycle followed by a downturn. In this cycle, the halving occurred in April 2024, and Bitcoin peaked in October — similar to previous cycles. However, with the market now heavily influenced by large financial institutions, it is unclear whether past patterns will repeat.
“The level of pessimism among retail investors is terrible right now, so the market could easily fall further,” said Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. “People fear the four-year cycle repeating and don’t want to endure another 50% drawdown. They’re exiting early to avoid that risk.”
Macro factors are adding pressure as well. Investors are scaling back expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, and the U.S. government shutdown — which has suspended economic data releases — is also weighing on sentiment.
Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey, said the tightening financial environment has heavily impacted Bitcoin ETFs.
“Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than 100 billion USD shortly after approval, but macro liquidity tightening has significantly slowed institutional inflows,” he said, adding that capital is now flowing out.
Could Bitcoin fall to 70,000 USD?
Few expect the downturn to reverse soon. “Let’s be honest: this correction may not be over. If equities tumble, we could easily see Bitcoin return to the 70,000 USD area, or even lower,” Quaglini warned.
Jeff Mei, COO of exchange BTSE, believes Bitcoin could fall further because it is still behaving like a typical risk asset. With concerns over AI valuations and uncertainty about potential Fed rate cuts, “prices could drop even more,” he cautioned.
However, experts emphasize that this correction is fundamentally different from past crises.
“This is not 2022 — there’s no credit domino effect, no wave of bankruptcies, no systemic collapse,” Quaglini stressed. “Once conditions stabilize, we still expect Bitcoin to reach new highs within the next 12–18 months.”
Sun believes long-term investors should watch macroeconomic signals rather than technical charts. Bitcoin’s upside potential will depend on whether global liquidity shifts toward sustained easing.
Meanwhile, Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, sees the current price as a strong opportunity for long-term investors, though he acknowledges sentiment is deeply pessimistic. “This is a reasonable entry point with a fairly constructive setup,” he said, adding that Bitwise has seen more clients invest in crypto in the past quarter than at any time in the company’s seven-year history.
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