Oil prices rose on Monday (November 24) as investors weighed the possibility of a U.S. interest-rate cut against the prospects of reaching a peace agreement with Ukraine—an outcome that could lead to an easing of sanctions on Russia.
The United States and Ukraine are expected to continue discussions on a revised peace plan ahead of the November 27 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, after agreeing to amend an earlier version that critics said was overly favorable to Moscow.
At the close of trading on November 24, Brent crude rose 81 cents (or 1.29%) to 63.37 USD/barrel. WTI crude added 78 cents (or 1.34%) to 58.84 USD/barrel.
U.S. sanctions on the state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil, effective November 21, had initially created tensions that typically push oil prices higher. However, the market is now being dominated by the peace-deal narrative, which has pressured prices downward.
Trump set November 27 as the deadline for the agreement, but U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on November 23 that the deadline might not be fixed.
A peace agreement could lead to the removal of sanctions that have hampered Russia’s oil exports. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Russia was the world’s second-largest crude oil producer after the United States in 2024.
Uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S. rate cut is another factor weighing on investor sentiment.
However, the likelihood of a rate cut next month has increased after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams signaled that a reduction could come in the near term.
Expectations that the Fed may lower interest rates in December 2025 could also offset pessimism by improving global risk appetite.
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