The head of the refined products division at consultancy FGE NexantECA has noted that global refining margins are currently “extraordinarily high.”
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that refining margins in the U.S., Europe, and Asia are at their highest levels since 2018—so strong that refinery stock prices have surged dramatically, in some cases by as much as 100% since the start of the year.
Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at FGE NexantECA, said that global refining margins are “astonishingly high.”
Essentially, the market is sending a clear signal to refineries: Run at full capacity.
In Europe, the U.S., and Asia, large refineries continue to operate as they always have—processing crude oil into essential fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and selling them for profit.
What is different now is the level of risk to global fuel supplies: relentless attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, outages at key plants in Asia and Africa, and the permanent closure of several refineries in Europe and the U.S.
Together, these factors have removed millions of barrels of diesel and gasoline from the market.
On top of that, traders are worried about what is coming next: upcoming U.S. sanctions on two Russian oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft, along with new European Union (EU) restrictions on fuel made from Russian crude.
According to estimates by global energy consultancy FGE, Lukoil and Rosneft together export more than 800,000 barrels per day of oil products. Any major disruption to this volume would be a shock to global fuel markets.
There are also questions about what will happen to refineries outside Russia in which Lukoil holds stakes, including the Burgas facility in Bulgaria, the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands, and Romania’s Petrotel.
In addition, the EU’s restrictions—expected to take effect on January 21, 2026—will ban the import of fuels produced from Russian crude into the bloc.
The ultimate impact on diesel supplies from India and Turkey—two major importers of Russian crude—remains to be seen.
Although not yet fully realized, these factors are threatening already-tight global fuel supply chains.
As a result, pump prices remain under persistent pressure despite falling global crude oil prices—something unlikely to please the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which views “affordable energy” as essential.
Average diesel prices have increased since President Trump began his second term, while gasoline prices have remained nearly unchanged, standing at $3.08 per gallon as of November 13.
Over the same period, benchmark crude oil prices have fallen by about 20% amid forecasts of significant oversupply as OPEC boosts production.
Overall, while refineries are enjoying a “golden season” of profits, consumers are bearing the consequences of a disrupted global fuel supply chain.
This imbalance—amplified by geopolitical risks—is the underlying reason why the paradox of cheap crude but expensive gasoline may continue for some time.
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