Global gold prices fell in Thursday’s trading session (November 20), after stronger-than-expected U.S. job data further reduced the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its December meeting.
However, the decline was limited as the U.S. dollar steadied and safe-haven demand remained high amid another sell-off in U.S. technology stocks.
At the close, spot gold in the New York market fell by 0.6 USD/oz from the previous session’s close, equivalent to a 0.01% drop, to 4,076.4 USD/oz, according to data from the Kitco trading platform. On the COMEX exchange, December gold futures fell 0.6%, settling at 4,060 USD/oz.
Gold prices rose at the beginning of the session, but the trend reversed when the U.S. Department of Labor released the nonfarm payrolls report for September—data that was supposed to be released in early October but was delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown. According to the report, the U.S. nonfarm sector added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the forecast of 50,000 jobs made by analysts before the report’s release.
Signs of a resilient labor market led traders in the interest-rate futures market to place the odds of a Fed rate cut in the final meeting of 2025 at under 40%, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. At one point during the session, the probability dropped to 25%.
Weakened expectations for further Fed rate cuts pushed the Dollar Index—measuring the strength of the USD against major currencies—higher during Thursday’s session, before ending at just above 100.2 points, little changed from the previous session.
Gold is a non-yielding asset priced in USD, so prospects of fewer rate cuts and a firm dollar both weigh negatively on gold prices.
“The job data confirmed what Fed officials discussed in their October meeting—an employment market that is slowing but still steady. A rate cut in December is therefore becoming an increasingly unlikely scenario,” creating downward pressure on gold, said Peter Grant, strategist at Zaner Metals.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the Labor Department said it will not release the October nonfarm payroll report and will instead combine it with the November data. The combined report will be released on December 16, after the Fed meeting. As such, the newly released September payroll data will be a key input influencing the Fed’s upcoming rate decision.
In recent days, many Fed officials have expressed caution about further rate cuts, arguing that additional easing could increase inflation risks and undermine public confidence in monetary policymakers. Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting, released Wednesday, also reflected this stance.
Even after pulling back from the record high near 4,400 USD/oz set in October and stabilizing around 4,000–4,100 USD/oz recently, gold prices have still risen 55% this year.
Analysts remain optimistic about gold’s long-term outlook. A newly released report from UBS forecasts that by mid-2026, gold prices could reach 4,500 USD/oz, supported by the Fed resuming rate cuts, persistent geopolitical risks, and continued net gold buying by central banks and ETF funds.
The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, sold a net 4.3 tons of gold on Thursday, reducing its holdings to 1,039.4 tons.
The limited decline in gold prices on Thursday indicates that investor demand for risk hedging remains high due to concerns over technology (AI) stocks. U.S. stock markets fell sharply in the session as AI-related stocks continued to be heavily sold. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 1.6% and the Nasdaq fell almost 2.2% at the close.
At 7:40 AM this morning (November 21) Vietnam time, spot gold in the Asian market fell 1.8 USD/oz from the U.S. close, down 0.01%, trading at 4,077.9 USD/oz. Converted at Vietcombank’s USD selling rate, this price is equivalent to roughly 130 million VND per tael, down 300,000 VND/tael from yesterday morning.
At the same time, Vietcombank’s website listed the USD at 26,136 VND (buying) and 26,386 VND (selling), down 2 VND at both ends compared to yesterday morning.
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