World gold prices edged down slightly in Tuesday’s trading session (Nov. 25), even though weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its December meeting, pushing the U.S. dollar lower…
The SPDR Gold Trust made no net purchases or sales, even as short-term supportive factors for gold have begun to re-emerge.
At the close of the New York market, spot gold fell by USD 4.2/oz, or 0.1%, to USD 4,131.9/oz, according to data from the Kitco exchange. During the session, spot gold at one point reached nearly USD 4,160/oz, the highest level since Nov. 14.
However, gold futures on the COMEX exchange rose 1.1%, settling at USD 4,140/oz.
The momentum of spot gold is showing signs of weakening after Monday’s nearly 2% surge, which restored prices above the USD 4,100/oz mark. Gold prices are being supported by the growing odds that the Fed will deliver its third rate cut of the year at its meeting scheduled for Dec. 9–10.
This possibility was reinforced as a series of U.S. economic reports released on Tuesday indicated economic weakness.
A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the U.S. Department of Labor showed that retail sales in September rose only 0.2% from the previous month, below the 0.3% increase forecast by economists in a Dow Jones survey.
Also according to the BLS, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September rose 0.3% from the previous month, in line with expectations, but core PPI increased only 0.1%, lower than the forecast of a 0.2% rise.
In addition, a report from hiring services firm ADP showed that job losses in the U.S. private sector have accelerated over the past four weeks. On average, private companies shed 13,500 jobs per week during the last four weeks, compared with a decline of 2,500 jobs per week in the previous reporting period.
A report from the Conference Board showed that U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply to 88.7 points in November from 195.5 points in October. This level was also below analysts’ expectations of a decline to 93.5 points.
After these data were released, interest-rate futures markets priced in an 85% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in December, up from 70% the previous day. The odds of another rate cut in January 2026 also increased, reaching 65%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened notably, with the Dollar Index closing at 99.8 points, down 0.3% from 100.2 points in the previous session.
“Expectations for a Fed rate cut in December are rising, thanks to recent dovish remarks from some Fed officials. Today’s economic data did not change that outlook,” said Peter Grant, strategist at Zaner Metals.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that weakening labor market conditions call for additional rate cuts. His view aligns with comments previously made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars and is a non-interest-bearing asset, so movements in the dollar and interest-rate expectations both tend to benefit gold. However, the fact that gold still declined during the session suggests that investors’ demand for safe-haven assets may be diminishing, especially as U.S. stocks recorded strong gains and progress continued in Russia–Ukraine peace efforts.
The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, “stood still,” holding its position at 1,040.9 tonnes of gold.
According to analyst Ricardo Evangelista of ActivTrades, in the long term, gold continues to be supported by economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability; in the short term, the precious metal will remain supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts.
At 6:15 AM this morning (Nov. 26), spot gold in the Asian market rose USD 4.8/oz from the U.S. closing level, up 0.12%, trading at USD 4,136.7/oz. Converted at Vietcombank’s USD selling rate, this price equals roughly VND 131.6 million per tael, up VND 100,000 per tael from yesterday morning.
At the same time, Vietcombank’s website listed the USD at 26,153 VND (buy) and 26,403 VND (sell), up 2 VND on both sides compared with yesterday morning.
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