The amount of Bitcoin circulating on the market is increasingly scarce and can create upward pressure on prices…

By Q2 2025, the number of Bitcoins in circulation will reach approximately 19.8 million.

Asset management firm Fidelity predicts that by 2032, about 42% of Bitcoin in circulation could be “frozen” as businesses and long-term investors continue to hold instead of selling.

It is estimated that approximately 8.3 million Bitcoins will be withdrawn from the circulating supply.

The study found two main groups that make up this scarcity. One is long-term investors – those who hold coins for at least 7 years and continuously increase their holdings.

Second are listed companies that own 1,000 or more Bitcoins, which have maintained a steady buying habit. There are currently 105 publicly listed companies holding more than 969,000 Bitcoins on their balance sheets, equivalent to 4.61% of the total supply.

Fidelity estimates that if the accumulation trend continues, by the end of 2025, these two groups will control more than 6 million Bitcoins, or about 28% of the maximum total issuance of 21 million.

The report also found that the two groups hold around $628 billion worth of Bitcoin, with an average purchase price of $107,700 – double that of last year. This raises concerns that if the “whales” suddenly sell off, Bitcoin prices could fluctuate wildly.

In fact, in the last 30 days, whales have sold about $12.7 billion worth of Bitcoin – the largest sale since mid-2022. However, Bitcoin’s price has only fallen 2% in the same period, according to data from CoinGecko.

By Q2 2025, the number of Bitcoins in circulation reached about 19.8 million. The data also shows that long-term wallets have barely reduced their holdings since 2016. For businesses, despite selling slightly in Q2 2022, they quickly returned to a strong buying momentum, especially in 2025.

The dwindling supply on the market is expected to create a driving force for Bitcoin prices, in the context of high demand from institutional and individual investors. However, the concentration of assets in the hands of the “big guys” also poses risks if they sell all at once.

Fidelity noted that the forecast does not take into account the impact of new entrants or increased allocations from investment funds. The report is based primarily on actual holdings.

In the past, the cryptocurrency market has always been volatile whenever supply and demand are out of balance. If the forecast comes true, this will be one of the biggest changes in the supply structure in Bitcoin’s 15-year history.