Derivatives Market Weekly Report (Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2025): Slight Decline, Negative Basis, and Foreign Net Selling
The derivatives market in the week of Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2025 witnessed a slight decline, with negative basis and continued foreign net selling. Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor the VN30-Index.
📌 Overview of the Derivatives Market
The trading week Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2025 is expected to remain under cautious sentiment. In the previous Friday session (Sep 26), VN30 futures contracts all fell, while the VN30-Index also corrected slightly. Liquidity improved, but foreign net selling and negative basis indicate that short-term risks remain.
📉 VN30 Futures Contracts Movements
On Sep 26, 2025:
Contract 41I1FA000 (FA000) dropped 0.51% to 1,840 pts.
Contract 41I1FB000 (FB000) declined 0.38% to 1,840.3 pts.
Contract VN30F2512 (F2512) lost 0.48% to 1,839 pts.
Contract 41I1G3000 (G3000) fell 0.36% to 1,818.1 pts.
The VN30-Index closed at 1,852.65 pts.
Intraday Chart of 41I1FA000 (Sep 22 – Sep 26, 2025)
During Sep 22 – Sep 26, FA000 contract showed a choppy pattern as selling pressure dominated, ending the week at 1,840 pts. Notably, the basis widened to -12.65 pts, reflecting investors’ bearish sentiment.
🔄 Liquidity & Foreign Trading
On Sep 26, the derivatives market recorded:
Trading volume increased 5.86% compared to the previous session.
Trading value rose 5.98%.
For the week:
Trading volume rose 9.88%.
Trading value increased 7.62%.
👉 However, foreign investors continued their strong net selling with 77 contracts in the last session, bringing the total for the week to 5,984 contracts. This signals that downward pressure remains.
📊 Futures Valuation
According to the fair value pricing method as of Sep 29, 2025, most VN30 futures contracts were trading within their fair value range. Some contracts were priced below the VN30-Index, creating opportunities for short-term trading strategies.
👉 Basis formula: Basis = Futures Price – VN30-Index
🔎 VN30-Index Technical Analysis
In the session on Sep 26, 2025, the VN30-Index edged down slightly while forming a small-body candlestick, with volume below the 20-session average — reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Additionally, the Bollinger Bands continued to narrow (Bollinger Band Squeeze) while the ADX indicator remained in the neutral zone (20 < ADX < 25). This suggests that the index will likely continue to fluctuate sideways with alternating up and down sessions in the near term.
👉 In the short term, the VN30-Index is expected to trade within a narrow range, with mixed movements.
💹 Government Bond Futures Contracts
Valuation as of Sep 29 showed that several government bond futures contracts such as GB05F2512, 41B5G3000, and 41B5G6000 were at attractive price levels. This may provide opportunities for long-term investors to consider allocation.
📝 Outlook & Strategies for Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2025
Cautious sentiment still dominates the derivatives market.
Negative basis and foreign net selling remain downward pressures.
VN30-Index has yet to show a breakout signal, expected to move within a narrow range.
👉 Recommended strategy: Investors should prioritize risk management, focus on short-term trading, and avoid opening large positions until the market confirms a clearer trend.
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