Since the beginning of the year, silver prices have surged by 86%, gold by 60%, while Bitcoin has turned “negative”…
Precious metals have become the leading asset class in terms of returns this year, far outperforming Bitcoin, as investors grow increasingly cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on December 10.
Since the start of the year, silver has gained as much as 86%, gold 60%, while Bitcoin is down 1.2%, according to data from Yahoo Finance.
Ryan McMillin, Chief Investment Officer at Merkle Tree Capital, said that concerns over currency value, unclear macroeconomic conditions, and mixed signals from the Fed are pushing investors toward precious metals as a safer haven.
According to him, many investors are preparing for the possibility that the Fed may “misstep” by cutting rates too early while inflation has not yet returned to its 2% target.
A key indicator, core PCE — the inflation gauge prioritized by the Fed — is trending back toward an annual increase of around 3%, instead of declining more deeply.
In addition, two major consumer components in U.S. price indices — services and housing — continue to rise strongly, putting further pressure on inflation. These signals have strengthened defensive sentiment and boosted demand for physical assets such as gold and silver.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market continues to climb, with the Nasdaq up 21% and the S&P 500 up 16% since the beginning of the year. McMillin attributes the rally to improving corporate earnings, share buybacks, and a new wave of investment into AI infrastructure.
In contrast, Bitcoin remains weighed down by the extended impact of the October sell-off and the market’s ongoing deleveraging, which has prevented its gains following ETF launches from being sustained.
Recent on-chain data shows that many short-term holders have begun selling at a loss. This typically occurs during “rebalancing” phases after sharp rallies, rather than signaling a deep bearish cycle.
Bitcoin has now fallen more than 26% from its all-time high of 126,080 USD but remains above the market’s “realized price” (based on on-chain data from Glassnode).
McMillin believes that Bitcoin’s divergence from gold, silver, and U.S. equities is only temporary.
In its latest report, Glassnode analysts noted that Bitcoin will remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic volatility until it reclaims the price level around 106,200 USD.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had fallen another 1.8% over the past 24 hours and continues to be trapped within the 82,000–94,000 USD trading range for more than two weeks.
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