Stablecoin liquidity is abundant, but is it enough to push BTC above 114K

“Bitcoin is rebounding around the $111.5K level, supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates as the U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling. Meanwhile, altcoins appear weaker, possibly due to capital flowing back into Bitcoin as a short-term safe-haven asset ahead of the key employment data.”

Main Reason Behind the Rebound

On Friday morning, Bitcoin surged to $111,500, marking a gain of about 0.8%, primarily driven by investor expectations ahead of the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Recent data indicates that the labor market is cooling, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September. According to CME FedWatch, this probability is currently priced at over 96%, strengthening overall market sentiment for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

While Bitcoin posted gains, most altcoins underperformed. Ethereum slipped about 0.6%, Solana lost 0.9%, and Cardano only edged up 0.2%. This divergence suggests that capital is temporarily flowing back into Bitcoin as a short-term safe haven, while investors await the NFP release to determine the market’s next move.

Technical Analysis BTC/USDT (H1 Chart)

Currently, the broader trend remains strongly bullish, with price consistently reacting and reversing around H1 support zones. On the H1 timeframe, Bitcoin has just shown a reversal signal and broke the previous high (BOS), forming a new peak that confirms buyers are in control.

Notably, the price is approaching an Order Block (OB) around 109,963 USDT, which also aligns with the Fibonacci OTE 0.79 level – a critical area likely to draw liquidity from previous lows (Equal Low).

Trading Plan

• Entry: Wait for price to retrace to the OB and form additional reversal signals on lower timeframes (H15 or H30), ideally accompanied by liquidity sweep of the Equal Low for confirmation.

• Stop Loss: Below 109,318 USDT.

• Take Profit (TP): 113,466 USDT, a potential resistance zone and equilibrium level for this bullish leg.

Outlook:
The short-term bias remains bullish, but traders should wait for price action at the OB to minimize risk and optimize entry points.

Note: This is only a personal view and should not be considered as financial advice.