Gold prices rose from a one-week low on Tuesday (November 18), supported by weak U.S. employment data, as investors assessed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in December 2025 ahead of delayed U.S. economic data set to be released later this week.
At the close of trading on November 18, spot gold gained 0.6% to 4,068.05 USD/oz after hitting its lowest level since November 10 earlier in the session. Gold futures slipped 0.2% to 4,068.40 USD/oz.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits reached a two-month high in mid-October 2025, with continuing claims rising to 1.9 million for the week ended October 18.
The data slightly boosted market expectations for a rate cut in December 2025. This supported the precious metal, which is attempting to break a three-session losing streak.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 50% probability of a rate cut at the December 2025 meeting, up from 46% earlier in the session but below the 67% probability forecast last week.
Gold, a non-yielding asset, typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. Prices fell more than 3% on November 14 and dropped another 1% on November 17 as investors scaled back expectations for another rate cut this year.
Markets are now awaiting the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting—scheduled for release on November 19—and U.S. employment data for September 2025, due on November 20. Both releases were delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown.
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